The Republican Edge
We are now less than a month away from the 2022 national election and the results of those races should be a positive for the stock market… and the country. When Congress reconvenes in January 2023, I feel confident there will be a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, with a pickup of probably 22 to as many as 40 seats if a real Red Wave takes hold. And a Republican-led Senate is a distinct probability.
Naturally, anything can happen and Democrats are likely to pull a number of “October Surprises” before all the ballots are counted. For example, the controversy Herschel Walker finds himself embroiled in his U.S. Senate race in Georgia because of his son’s charges. For the most part, he has handled it well and my guess is he’ll win despite all that, but, honestly, it could go the other way.
There could and probably will be other explosive revelations that may swing voters’ temperaments for various candidates, even outright lies and scandalous charges that can’t or won’t be successfully disputed before the election deadline. So to paraphrase Bette Davis: Buckle up; we’re in for a bumpy ride.
And, whatever you do, don’t fall for any last-minute reveals. Vote your head; your heart already knows what you have to do.
In any case the polls – for what they’re worth – right now are indicating a strong lead for Republican candidates down the line. Generally, one can add two to five points more in any given poll as most conservatives and Republicans simply don’t cooperate with pollsters, whereas it seems Democrats can’t wait to get their three cents in every chance they get.
The latest Gallup Poll (September 1 to 16) has respondents choosing the Republican Party over the Democratic Party 48% to 37% as the Party than can do a better job of dealing with what those polled see as the most important issues: the high cost of living/inflation, the economy in general, poor government leadership, immigration, and race relations. Democrats are scrambling to alter that impression and with the help of a more-than compliant media the party has been somewhat successful turning voters’ attention to abortion and… Trump. But as I see it, not nearly enough minds have or will re-focus away from the battered economy and poor leadership in the White House to make much of a dent in the likely outcome.
Based upon everything I’m reading, viewing, listening to, hearing, and taking in, the following is how – as I see it – this election will go.
First, a rundown of all the U.S. Senate races, with the first name being Republican and the second Democrat, along with my guess at the odds of what I predict will happen:
Nevada: Laxalt beats Cortez Masto (52/48)
Georgia: Walker ousts Warnock (52/48)
Wisconsin: Johnson over Barnes (60/40)
North Carolina: Budd squeezes out a victory over Beasley (51/49)
Ohio: Vance takes out Ryan (55/45)
Pennsylvania: Oz wins over Fetterman (51/49)
Arizona: Masters beats Kelly (50/50)
New Hampshire: Bolduc loses to Hassan (48/52)
Florida: Rubio easily defeats Demings (56/44)
Colorado: Fuggedaboutit, Democrat Bennet wins hands down
Utah: Lee wipes the floor with McMullin (70/30)
Washington: Smiley has a fighting chance to overtake Murray (49/51)
Indiana: Young beats McDermott (70/30)
Missouri: Schmitt wins easily over Busch Valentine (70/30)
Iowa: Grassley beats Franken (60/40)
Connecticut: Wish it could be otherwise, but Levy loses to Blumenthal (47/53)
Kansas: Stays red as Moran beats Holland (80/20)
Illinois: Another state that needs help but looks like Salvi loses to Duckworth (47/53)
Oregon: Republicans making progress, but Perkins loses to Wyden (47/53)
Louisiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma (2 seats up here), South Dakota, North Dakota, and Alaska remain in the Red (Republican) Zone
Vermont, New York, Maryland, California, and Hawaii sadly remain deep blue.
The count is 24 Republican Senators in the winning column, versus 10 Democrat victors and one undecided.
This scenario has Republicans beating three Democrat incumbents (Cortez Masto in Nevada, Warnock in Georgia, and Kelly in Arizona). Republicans also win 8 seats with no incumbent but all of which lean heavily Republican and hold on to the rest of their current seats, which have little or no competition.
If any semblance of this prediction holds, Republicans will come out of the 2022 election season with a 53/47 majority in the Senate and if the toss-up goes against Murray in Washington, a 54/46 split. If things go badly for Republicans, it is possible Democrats hang on to a 50/50 Senate, but as a betting man, I’m going with the momentum play, which favors Republicans.
As a former president often remarks, we’ll see what happens.
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"Blue Voters have jobs." Hmm, that's news to me. And, wow, you must have a direct channel to Nostradamus if you're "not kidding" about "1000 years of darkness." I suggest you stay indoors with the lights out until every vestige of Covid-19 is eradicated. Just to be safe...
october surprise should be renamed "republicans cant count". it takes longer to count the millions who live in blue counties than the 50 or so ppl who live in red. also more blue voters use mail in since they have jobs. as long as orange devil isnt in office were all better off. if gop supports orange devil again that means democracy is done and were going into 1000 years of darkness. im not kidding